Modeling of Human Rabies Cases in Brazil in Different Future Global Warming Scenarios

Ensemble niche modeling (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, GLM; biomod2) of climatic suitability for human rabies in Brazil, using SINAN notifications (Jan/2001–Aug/2023) georeferenced to municipal centroids and WorldClim bioclimatic variables (1970–2000; 2.5 min). Future: HadGEM3-GC31-LL, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100. Consensus AUC 0.90, sensitivity 87%, specificity 81%. Temperature seasonality (BIO4) had the highest relative contribution.